euler hermes roma Economic News: Despite disappointing jobs Oct. 2017 report, economy on solid footing

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There has been a firehose of economic data this week, and here are just some of the highlights. Most of the data shows an economy on solid ground.

But today’s employment report was a bit of disappointment. The US economy created +261k jobs in October, rebounding from the hurricane damaged +18k (originally -33k) of September, but well below expectations of +325k. But there are no doubt distortions through both months and one can’t expect to get all the jobs back in just one month. In fact, the average over the past two months is now +140k, which is more than either July or March, and it’s not that far from the average over the past twelve months of +175k. The leisure and hospitality industry gained +106k, reversing last month’s loss of -102k. Retail continues to suffer, losing -8k this month. But where are the construction jobs which should have appeared in the wake of the hurricanes? Construction gains were only +11k, less than the 12 month average of +17k.

The household part of the report was not good either. The unemployment rate did slip to 4.1% from 4.2%, but it was for a bad reason - the labor force fell a sharp -765k, which put the participation rate down a very big -0.4% to 62.7%. Worst of all wages were FLAT putting the y/y rate way back to +2.4% y/y, the lowest in 21 months. That is a disappointment. Last month was +2.8% and we were hoping to at least hold on to that. And the expected wage gains in construction instead fell -0.4% to +2.3% y/y.

All that said, it’s probably not enough to derail a Fed hike in December. The Fed is smart enough to realize that two hurricanes affecting 8%-9% of US GDP and population are going to distort the data. Indeed, futures markets have barely budged this morning, and remain at a 97% chance of a December hike.

euler hermes roma Economic News: Despite disappointing jobs Oct. 2017 report, economy on solid footing
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