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Confidence among both consumers and businesses has soared since the election. The latest example comes from The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism survey, which posted exceptionally strong results in December. The overall index rose 7.3 points, a record amount, to the highest level since December 2004, which was 12 years ago. Some of the components of the survey were particularly encouraging. The percentage of firms saying now is a good time to expand rose 12.2%, another record, to 22.7%, the highest in 11.5 years. The report also said that the net percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve in the next 6 months rose a “stratospheric” 37.4%, another record, to the highest level since March of 2002, almost 15 years ago. The report is perhaps the best indicator yet that the business community believes proposed future economic policies will be truly effective in boosting the economy. By contrast, the confidence created by record stock prices is driven by investor sentiment, which isn’t necessarily grounded in business reality. And consumer confidence, while encouraging, often does not lead to an actual increase in consumption. However this survey of actual business decision makers indicates is substantially more persuasive.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from November continued to indicate strength in the labor market. The quit rate remained at an elevated 2.1% for the sixth consecutive month, indicating confidence among employees that they can easily find a new job if they quit their current job. The report also showed the continuing pattern of the job openings rate exceeding the job hiring rate, suggesting that employers have plenty of jobs available, but can’t find enough people to actually hire. To a certain extent this relatively new relationship indicates strength in the labor market. However it also puts a lid on growth if employers can’t find people with the right skills for the available jobs – the skills mismatch.
euler hermes roma Economic News: Small business confidence grows, employers having trouble filling jobs (January 2017) | |
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