newspaper mockup Economic News: Good employment reports for both the US and Canada

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US:
The economy created 156k jobs in September, just a shade less than expectations of 170k. The biggest negative in the report was that the manufacturing sector lost 12k jobs, the second consecutive loss. Otherwise, job gains were widespread across most industries.

Other details of the report were mostly positive, especially the fact that the labor force increased by 444k jobs, inching the participation rate up from 62.8% to 62.9%. The increase in the labor force also drove the unemployment rate up from 4.9% to 5.0%, but this is a positive.

Average hourly earnings rose +0.2 and are back up to +2.6% y/y. Over the past 12 months that figure has hovered between +2.3% and +2.7%, so only a bit of inflation is indicated here.

The report keeps the Fed on track for a December rate hike. Fed Funds futures markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a hike today vs. 65% yesterday. The hike is unlikely to have a significant effect on the real economy since it’s only a 25bps move off of still historically low rates. Furthermore, US financial markets have almost certainly priced in the move. It’s not clear if the global financial markets have digested the likelihood, and so they may be a bit more vulnerable to a mild shock when it happens.

Canada:
The Canadian economy produced a blockbuster report for September. The consensus had been for the economy to create 7.5k jobs, but instead it created 67.2k jobs, the most in 4.5 years. It was also the biggest back to back gain in 2 years. Job creation was broad based across most sectors. Perhaps the best part of the report was that 13.3k jobs were created in Alberta, the second consecutive gain after four straight months of job losses, and losses in eight of the ten previous months. It is possible that rebuilding from the wildfires might already be creating jobs. In addition, like in the US, the labor force grew, gaining a substantial 70k.

However, unlike the US, the Canadian central bank will be in no hurry to raise rates. The Bank of Canada is facing slow economic growth, falling inflation, and emerging risks from the housing market.

newspaper mockup Economic News: Good employment reports for both the US and Canada
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