Get more economic news and analysis from Euler Hermes North America Chief Economist Dan North at
http://www.eulerhermes.us/economic-re...
US Q1 GDP was revised from +0.5% to +0.8% q/q annualized. A sharp drop in business investment shaved -0.5% off the headline while net exports and inventory cut an additional -0.2% each. Q1 consumption was tepid at +1.9%, but April consumption grew a rapid +0.6% m/m, to a +3.0% y/y rate, boding well for strong Q2 GDP growth. As a result EH expects the Fed to hike rates either in June or July.
While consumers spent more in April, their confidence (the blue line) shrank in May from 94.7 to 92.6. Future expectations fell from 79.7 to 79.0, the lowest in 28 months. Note the spread between consumers’ assessment of the current situation vs. expectations for the future has widened significantly since the beginning of the presidential campaign.
The spread itself is near lows last seen during the recession, suggesting that concerns over the future may hold down consumption for the rest of the year.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index crept up from 50.8 to 51.3 in May, still only a bit above the 50 level indicating expansion. The details were slightly more encouraging as only three of the ten components are now below 50, and only four components dropped this month as opposed to six last month. However, combined with last month’s soft durable goods orders, manufacturing is still barely scraping along the bottom.
Construction spending, which has been such a bulwark for the economy, fell 1.8% in April for the worst reading since January 2011. Both residential and non-residential fell to y/y rates of 7.7% and 2.5% respectively. May construction spending could be negative too given how many days it rained in the month – at least 15 out of 30 days in parts of the East.
After a promising start, the Canadian economy has taken a sharp downward turn. Q1 GDP grew +2.4% q/q annualized vs. expectations of +2.8%, but January was the only month to show growth. Furthermore the Alberta wildfires will likely send Q2 GDP into negative territory.
economic datasets Economic News: May 2016 Manufacturing, Consumer Spending Analysis from Euler Hermes' Dan North | |
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