euler hermes roma Economic News: No Surprises from the Fed July 2017 Meeting

Get more economic news and analysis from Dan North at http://www.eulerhermes.us/economic-re....

As expected the Federal Reserve today left short term interest rates unchanged but did give a stronger hint as to when the balance sheet reduction program would begin. Instead of saying that the reduction program would take place “this year” the statement now reads “relatively soon” suggesting that the start of the program will be announced at the September meeting. The program is designed to unwind its previous Quantitative Easing (QE) programs, thus putting upward pressure on longer term interest rates. The statement also downgraded the Fed’s assessment of both consumption and inflation, acknowledging recent economic weakness. The statement had previously described household spending as having “picked up in recent months” but now describes it as merely having “continued to expand.” The statement was a bit more blunt about low inflation, leaving the word “somewhat” out of the previous statement’s description of inflation as “running somewhat below 2 percent.”

We expect that the Fed will raise the Fed Funds rate at the December meeting and increase it 2-3 more times in 2018. We also expect that the Fed will implement its balance sheet reduction program very gradually, as planned, over a period of five years. Note that the Fed Funds rate and the longer term benchmark 10 year Treasury note are still at very low levels historically.

euler hermes roma Economic News: No Surprises from the Fed July 2017 Meeting
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